2023-11-02H UPTREND Day 2, Everything good is rising

2023-11-02H  UPTREND Day 2, Everything good  is rising

Soooo sorry - I got ready to start the weekend ArmchairInvestor newsletter and found that I had not launched Thursday's edition.

So here it is.

Look for ward to the Fridey (weekend) edition by 5 P.M. today (Sunday) as usual.

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Nasdaq rose .1.8% on Wednesday with Higher Volume and the S&P500 rose 1.7% for Accumulation Days for both --- to launch a NEW UPTREND!

Although I am happy to see the market back in an Uptrend, I am uncertain about the strength of the new Uptrend and will watch carefully.. Please stay tuned!

THE GOOD NEWS: All3 indexes we follow in this newsletter rose on Wednesday. But only the Nasdaq was supported by higher volume and thus the only major index with a Major Accumulation day..

Many of you know that I love to hold the Triple QQQ (TQQQ) in a strong uptrending market.And I switch to the Triple Short  QQQ (SQQQ)  in a downtrend.

So how about the TQQQ’s 5.3% rise in just one day today?

But remember,most indexes fall faster than they rise. The TQQQ is soooo much easier to make money with if you can visit them just once a day. That TQQQ pays out about 2.5xto 3x.  I can tell you a serious percent of my students just do that – play the TQQQ in a rising market…..and the SQQQ in a falling market. And now you know the foundation of the success of this newsletter…. the Triples!

>>>>>Please remember: I do not know how to get in at the bottom  or out at the top. I just  get closer than most.

We don’t know it’s a top until after we have ridden the market down for a bit.

But I get closer to the turning points than most.  

If you had gotten IN at the beginning of the year and out at the March low you would have been UP about 20% which alone is a pretty good year. But I hope you would have stayed around and considered getting back in as the TQQQ broke to a new high.

I’ll let you ponder those questions.  On a MarketSmith chart, you can play out the stock timing drama. You can reveal the chart one day at a time to see how well you would have timed it.

>>>>>>My goal in this discussion is to be sure you know the critical points mentioned above are a “must” to remember:

·       A “BUY & HOLD” strategy is never recommended in this newsletter.

CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE HAS BEEN DONE IN THE RECENT DOWNTREND. I hope you did not go on vacation and leave the triple ETF unattended.

Please NOTE: In this newsletter, you will see more attention paid to the QQQ (Nasdaq100 – the fund of the 100 largest stocks without the slower financial stocks)than the Nasdaq, S&{500 or DJIA.

As you look at a20-day HISTORY of the I below, note:

·      The Nasdaq topped on 10/11/23 and has lost 6.7% from that top.

Look at the last 13 days of the Nasdaq’s price/volume action.

In the “Change in Price” column, look at the last 13 trading days that I have “boxed:”

·      8price changes are red or orange indicating their price fell from the day before, versus…

·      Only 5price changes were green or lime-green indicating they rose.

>>>>LESSON to NOTE:  Most indexes drop faster than they rise but this drop is accelerating! Notice on the QQQ chart above, I have installed a curve under the QQQ lows which emphasizes the accelerating drop.

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Although today’s Nasdaq closing price was not a 20-day high, it was 11day high and the last 2 as accumulation days, the new Uptrend might give us a good boost!

Look below at the MARKET FACTOR, COUNTS & RATINGS table below

I am LOOKING FOR GREEN…. And I found it in the top for ratings!

·      Note the poor,laggard DJIA and S&P500 have closed below their 200-day lines.

·      The Nasdaq has an E rating and the DJIA has a D ratings.

And this market continues lower. (After the big runup earlier this year,I am not surprised …. And am not poor from it – since I made a lot in the first half of the

year.)

In the table below, I especially liked the 6 up (rising) days versus the 4 down days in the last 10 days.  

>>>>In fact, please note the last 4 days were all rising and the last 2 were  a minor accumulation day for Tuesday and a MAJOR ACCUMULATION DAY for Wednesday (today.)

>>>it looks the uptrend is gaining momentum.

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The low number of stocks with an “A” rating certainly got HIGHER Thursday.! And I expect them to grow tomorrow and next week

Stay tuned!    Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!

On the Accumulation/Distribution table below, note that the stocks with “A” ratings which have almost dried up – at 4% or 5% for the last 5 weeks, grew today:

·      The % of Bs rose from 17% to 22% over the last week.

·      The % of Cs rose from 20% to 23%.

·      While the Ds fell 2% and the Es fell 8%.

Looking at the last 5 weeks, note that this period has been a hard time to find stocks that have strong or rising prices (Stocks with “A” or “B” ratings.)

>>>>>This a dropping market. (Yes the last 3 days of the Nasdaq were UP with rising volume – but that volume is significantly below average.

>>>>I am NOT convinced the market correction is over.

REMEMBER:_____CASH IS A POSITION!

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