1/17/2024W On Tuesday and Wednesday, the QQQ dipped a total of 1.8%. Volume was higher on both days but only Wednesday had enough of a price drop to label the day a distribution day of selling.

1/17/2024W  On Tuesday and Wednesday, the QQQ dipped a total of 1.8%. Volume was higher on both days but only Wednesday had enough of a price drop to label the day a distribution day of selling.

I hope you participated in last week’s January run up! After the last 2 falling days on higher volume in this week, I wonder if the recent high will hold …. At least for a while.  I will NOT jump back in until I see a stronger upward signal.

I am concerned about today’s higher volume which made the day a minor distribution day. There is talk on the street that the market may have some difficulty running up higher after the November-December run up.    

Note: I am not concerned that the volume was light over last week. Monday was a holiday. Volume returned on Tuesday. Let’s see what the last 2 days of this week and next week bring in.

Turn to the 20-day history below.

Notice the 5-day period of down days in of the 20-day table below.  That table had only 1 other down day in the last 2o trading days. Although not allup-days were large, the consistency of 15 rising days in the last 20 trading days is very positive.

What I like best about the MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS table below, is the number of Accumulation days  versus the Distribution days. That ratio gives a stronger sense of the strength of this market.

Please don’t worry about the negative numbers on the following table. Any year can start off with a dip, especially after such a big run-up as we had last year.

>>>>> If you are uncomfortable being in the QQQ or TQQQ right now, just wait in cash for a few days to see what the market has to say.

NOTE: For the 2023 year, the Nasdaq took the lead rising 43.4%.  I expect it to do the same in 2024, even if the market falls, but NO GUARANTEES!

Do you see why I put my investing money in a Nasdaq ETF and NOT 1n S&P500 ETF?

I expect the Nasdaq to continue to lead the market rises and falls in 2024.

Now it is time for the major indexes to get back to work! REMINDER:

REPEAT OF MY EXPECTATIONS FOR 2024.

In2024, I plan to include the S&P500 for comparison to the Nasdaq. But I doubt that I will ever invest in it again. The S&P500 just hasn’t kept up with the Nasdaq….. so why should I waste your time looking at the that lagging ETF??

I’m sure you will appreciate the Nasdaq’s greater growth and use it to win cocktail party discussions! And, please tell them about this newsletter!

I haven’t found other Mainstream ETF to compare the Nasdaq with.  BUT please do not think that because I listed the S&P500 that I consider it something to invest in.  NOTHING COULD BE FARTHER FROM MY THOUGHTS AND PAST EXPERIENCE.  

Why do so many sites include the S&P500 but not the Nasdaq?  My guess is the S&P500 MAKES POORER PERFORMING INVESTING SITES  and THEIR INVESTMENTS LOOK BETTER IN COMPARISON.

>>>>>Where can you look for easy access to even higher returns?

How about the triple QQQ an Exchange Traded Fund known by its TQQQ ticker?

Look at the comparison of the single, double and triple QQQ: Note that the 3 tiers of QQQs actually show accelerating returns… the double QQQ (QLD) rose more than twice the single today, and the triple QQQ (TQQQ) rose more than 3 times the single.

>>> Please do not think that investing for great returns will be as easy as the table above for the rest of this year.  Please read at least the first section of this newsletter each night if you can.  Everything that rises in the stock market…..eventually falls.  Don’t get cause skipping many Armchair Investor newsletter and rise losing much of your gains.

>>>>>>And it is your job to watch the markets nightly (or just read this newsletter nightly) to be clear on what direction the market is going.

What should you do when the market starts falling?

Just read this newsletter that night and I will give you a simple solution based on what the market is doing then.

REMEMBER:  I do NOT know how to:

·      Get in at the bottom or

·      Get out at the top.

·      ….. but I have consistently gotten closer than most …. And that timing has returned significant growth in my portfolio and those of my readers.

Please be sure to read tomorrow’s newsletter ….. I will talk about the TIMING OF USING THE TQQQ (triple QQQ.) This is one strategy I will focus on this year as it is appropriate..

Are you concerned that the market may have risen as much as it could, for the moment? You might be right … but I’m not worried. The current Uptrend is showing moderate strength.  

NOTE:  IF YOU EVER SEE AN EMAIL FROM ME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY (which happens rarely), consider giving it a quick read. It MIGHT include a change of strategy you can implement during the day to save more of your prior wins.

·      Remember: The market and individual stocks continue in the direction they are going… until they don’t.

>>>> Please read this newsletter nightly to be sure you don’t miss my notes on when and where the big growth (or fall) is happening!  

I hope you have enjoyed an investment in the TQQQ (triple QQQ.)  They have grown almost 4 times the single QQQ this year. ….. But remember…. The TQQQ also can fall at 3 (or more)times the QQQ.  

What to do about the high volatility of the TQQQ?

>>>I suggest you read at least the first two pages of this newsletter each night.  This action will keep you tapped into the current market. And remember:

·      I do NOT know how to get in at the market bottoms and out at the tops. ----- I just get closer than most others. Note on the above table the price/volume action of the last 20 days. Only 3 days were Distribution days –when the price dropped and the volume rose, indicated some serious selling.

FINALLY: REMEMBER:

In the stock market:

“What goes UP, UP, UP….. eventually goes DOWN, DOWN, DOWN! “

The first 10 days on the 20-day list above had a singular down day on 12/20!  That is amazing!  

The market continued higher for the next 4 days before an abrupt reversal for 5 down days in a row, ending with 4 rising days.

Only one of those 3 rising days had a significant (2.2%) rise.And that 1/8 day had extraordinary volume of 20.6% increase… a nice way to kickoff the week.

Look at the amazing percentage of stocks that have “A” or “B” ratings – Even after a drop from recent A+B s owning 732%.... today’s 68% As+Bs is still very strong.!!!

Today’s Accumulation/Distribution table:

Please watch this newsletter daily.

Note that the percentage of As and Bs took hit last week  – a drop from 73% last week to only 61%in just a week! >>>>>  Yikes!

The percent of “A” and “B” rated stocks is still a strong (but fading??) 60% the A’s and B’s haven taken a serious decline over the weekend.

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NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding onto a falling stock, whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company, is a quick way to loose your recent gains. If you play individual stocks and ETF’s, play carefully. Use the real returns (daily, weekly, monthly)

>>>> Remember….. down is down!

Of course I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.

REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fast rising market, you should consider holding a position that allows you to position your portfolio to rise with the market (or a multiple of it.) Stay tuned! And watch daily!

And….. those birds still aren’t going anywhere!

Stay tuned!    Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are very healthy.

Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.

I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THIS NEWSLETTER.  

I USUALLY SPEND  MORE THAN 4 HOURS:

·      RESEARCHING THE IDEAS IN THIS NEWSLETTER,

·      CALCULATING ALL THE DATA I NEED,

·      WRITING THE TEXT FOR THE NEWSLETTER AND….

·      FORMATING THE NEWSLETTER.  (Today it was more like 5 hours.)

I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINOR CHANGES IN TODAY’S NEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.)

Thank you for your kind feedback and ideas. Please keep sending them.

Charlotte Hudgin

The ArmchairInvestor

CharlotteDH100@mail.com

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