2024-03-12T: The Armchair Investor Newsletter. Tuesday’s Major Accumulation day continued the UPTREND.

2024-03-12T: The Armchair Investor Newsletter.  Tuesday’s Major Accumulation day continued the UPTREND.  

Look at the daily TQQQ chart below.  

The TQQQ rose 4.3% Tuesday! That was a good day forArmchair Investors who followed last week’s advice. Yes, the TQQQ is still alittle below its March 1 high, having recovered over half of last week’s loss.  Yes,…. This volatility is the nature of playingthe “triples”!  

If you are uncertain about the volatility of the triples,just take a moment and step back.. Loo at the big blue arrow, showing an extraordinary100% rise in a less than 5 months..

 MONDAY’SNOTES REPEATED (still relevant):

 But you have to note that the TQQQ has risen 100% over the last 5 months.  I am not crying!  Not even complaining – this volatility is what, eventually pays be off big-time if you can just see when to get in and out! And that is what this newsletter is designed to do.

‍

REMEMBER:  I do not know how to get in at the lows or out at the highs. I just get closer than most!

I still see Friday’s high volume distribution day as a warning. And I am paying attention to it, glad that Monday’s drop was just -0.4%. And very glad thatTuesday popped back up, closing at the top of its price range.

If you step back and look at the above TQQQ Chart, you may not be too concerned.  NOTE: It’s the high volume on Friday that was a concern for me. Since Monday took such a small dip on below average volume, and then TODAY (Tuesday) popped UP 4.3%, I am happy with the TQQQ’s progress.

>>>>LET’S LOOK AT TODAY’S MARKET:

 What did the triple QQQs (all 3 forms of them shown below) do on Tuesday?

IN MY WORLD –

·       NOTHING BEATS THE TQQQ in an Uptrend, and

·       NOTHING BEATS THE SQQQ in a Downtrend.

NOTE:  For this week, I have some big commitments in service projects (I am a Rotarian, the largestvolunteer service organization in the world!)

Thus, the newsletters may be shorter – especially if not much is shifting in the market.  

>>> I focus on the TQQQ because you can make 3 times as much on the TQQQ in a rising market.

NOTE:  I am very pleased with the dependable 1-2-3 relationship the 3 ETFs – the single QQQ, the double QLD and the triple TQQQ… and I am especially enjoying making those great returns on the triple QQQs!...

‍

‍

REAPEAT OF MONDAY’S NEWSLETTER:

If you can’t sleep tonight because you know the TQQQ can drop 3 times as fast as the QQQ, I encourage you to take one of these moves:

·      First, look at a weekly chart(which takes out much of the annoying volatility),  

·       Second, realizethat the TQQQ is climbing toward its recent high and is mostly rising (every investment has ups and downs.

·       Third, step back and see how they are adding up…. Are the investments rising or falling overall?

·      If you can’t sleep well at night knowing the TQQQ can fall 3 times as fast as the single QQQ, consider holding your investment in the QQQ and “paper trade” the TQQQ.

·      And stay tuned…. Note what happens next so you will see if the exit was the best idea….. The good news about the TQQQ is that they have paid me well in every runup I have used them.

MYPLAN: >>> If the market keeps moving higher consistently,  I will simply put my money in the TRIPLE QQQ until the market starts to generate a smaller return orreverses down..

NOTEfor the last 23 years I’ve been following the QQQs, and then, when they came along, the TQQQ (triple QQQ) and the SQQQs (the short triple QQQ), my portfoliohas enjoyed an accelerated growth.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MYPLAN:  It’s just 3 simple steps:

1.    Be in the TQQQ (triple long QQQ) when the market is rising.

2.    Be in the SQQQ (triple short QQQ) when the market isfalling hard.

o   TheSQQQ rise if you hold it because the SQQQ is an INVERSE ETF. It rises when the market it represents falls.

3.    And sometimes wait in CASH if the market is changingdirection or is just “flakey.”  I’ll discuss any of those times in this newsletter!

Isn’tit nice to have an investment that is likely to earn a positive return when the market is falling? (That is what an “inverse” ETF does like the SQQQ.)

>>>And if you ever get spooked, *CASH* is always a safe position.You may not make as much as being in a rising triple ETF but you will sleep better at night if you don’t extend past your comfort level. And a little practice will sure show you what you did right and what you did wrong, If you are willing to examine the big wins and losses.

Couldit be any easier?  I have played the triple Note QQQ and inverse QQQ for years; ….even  before I had made much money in them.  They made sense then and they make more sense now.

So I continue my investing plan:

·       Hang on to the TQQQ when the market is rising.

·       Move to CASH when the market is unclear.

·       Change to SQQQ (the short Qs) when the market is falling.

I MUST complement the QQQ and SQQQ ETF managers! They deliver on their promise to ride the TQQQ up about 2.5X to 3X times the QQQ. In a

>>> I happily put my investment in the TQQQ as long as the market is rising, being very pleased with whatever slight variation of 3x that they earn.

>>>>>>PLAN FOR TOMORROW:   Be in the TQQQ. <<<<<<<<<

REMEMBER: I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO PICKTHE TOP OR THE BOTTOM OF A RUN until I see them in the rearview mirror.

But I usually get closer to the tops and bottoms than most traders.

>>>NOTE: The nice thing about the TQQQ is -- it can make a lot of money for you whenit is rising.  

THE BAD NEWS ABOUT THE TRIPLE QQQs – BOTH the TQQQ and the SQQQ: You can QUICKLY LOOSE THOSE GAINS IN A QUICK MARKET TURNAROUND IF YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION.  Please visitthis newsletter every day – even if only to read the first page.

IF YOU ARE GOING TO PLAY IN THE TRIPLE ETF UNIVERSE, YOU HAVE TO WATCH IT EVERY DAY….. OR BE WILLING TO BE UNPLEASANTLY SURPRISED (DISAPPOINTED) WITH A QUICKSWITCH IN THE MARKET DIRECTION.

>>>> Really…. How long does it take to look atthe current price chart? Just a wink if you have it set up on your phone orcomputer

I AM AMAZED AT HOW FEW DOWN DAYS  the Nasdaq has in the last 20 trading days!

What Ilike best about the current MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS tablebelow is the number of Accumulation days (5) still (slightly) out runs the4 distribution days in the last 20 trading days.

Thatratio gives me a good sense of the strength and direction of the currentmarket. If the recent move of 6 UP days and 3 DOWN days confuses you, notethat I do not count a day’s move unless it was at least 0.2% up or down (whichthese did.)

What should you do when the market starts falling (and it always does…. eventually.)?

Just read this newsletter that night and I will give you a simple solution based onwhat the market is doing then.

If you can’t stand the market dropping, it is OK to sell your holdings abd wait inCASH.

>>>>>REMEMBER: I do NOT know how to:

·      Get in at the bottomor

·      Get out at the top.

·      ButI have consistently gotten closer than most other advisors…. And that timinghas returned significant growth in my portfolio and those report from elsewhere.

Are you concerned that the market may have risen as much as it can for the moment?You might be right … but I’m not yet seeing the market slowing down.

>>>The current Uptrend is to still showing moderate strength.  

NOTE: IF YOU EVER SEE AN EMAIL FROM ME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY (whichhappens rarely), consider giving it a quick read. It MIGHT include a change ofstrategy you can implement during the day to reduce your losses as the marketfalls or to save more of your prior wins.

·      Remember:The market and individual stocks continue in the direction they are going…until they don’t.

>>>>Please read this newsletter nightly to be sure you don’t miss my notes on whenand where the big growth (or fall) is happening!  

What to do about the high volatility of the TQQQ?

>>>I suggest you read at least the first two pages of this newsletter each night. This action will keep you tapped into the current market. And remember:

·      I do NOT know how to get in at the market bottoms and out at the tops. ----- Ijust get closer than most others. Note on the above table the price/volumeaction

of the last 20 days. Only 3 days were Distribution days –when the price dropped andthe volume rose, indicated some serious selling.

>>>>>FINALLY:REMEMBER:

In the stock market,…

“What goes UP, UP, UP….. eventually goes DOWN, DOWN, DOWN! “

Look below at the amazing percentage of stocks that have “A” or “B” ratings – Even after adrop from recent A+B s owning 68%.... today’s 55% As+Bs is still pleasantly strong.!!!

Tuesday’s Accumulation/Distribution table:    

Pink boxes above indicate ratings that have fallen over the last week. Greenboxes above indicate ratings that have risen over the last week.

Please consider reviewing this newsletter daily: .Themarkets can change direction and strength quickly! Note that the percentage ofAs and Bs took hit over the last 4 weeks – a drop from 61% fourweeks ago to 52% 2 WEEKS AGO TO 58% LAST WEEK on this week!>>>>>  A small drop !

‍

‍

‍

NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding ontoa falling stock, (whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company), is aquick way to lose your recent gains. If you play individual stocks and ETF’s,play carefully. Use the real returns (daily, weekly, monthly)

IT IS COMMON FOR STOCKS, ETFs, AND FUNDS TO FALL FASTERTHAN THE RISE.

Of course, I do not sell a position that has been risingwell after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss overseveral days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days(down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash canhelp you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.

REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fastrising market, you should VISIT your portfolio to verify it (or a big part ofit) is not dropping.

>>>> Stay tuned for Friday’s results!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTERTHAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are veryhealthy.

Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.

I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THISNEWSLETTER.  

I USUALLY SPEND  MORE THAN 4 HOURS FOR EACH ARMCHAIRINVESTOR NEWSLETTER:

·      RESEARCHING THE IDEASIN THIS NEWSLETTER,

·      CALCULATING ALL THEDATA I NEED,

·      WRITING THE TEXT FORTHE NEWSLETTER AND….

·      FORMATTING THENEWSLETTER.  (Today it was more like 5 hours.)

I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINOR CHANGES IN TODAY’SNEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.) 

Thank you for your kind feedback  and ESPECIALLY FOR YOU WHO HAVE DECIDED TOMAKE A MONTHY CONTRIBUTION.

Charlotte Hudgin, The Armchair Investor

May your stock portfolio grow and grow and grow like this girraffe family!  

‍

‍