2024-02-12M: Nasdaq continues to Lead Major Indexes’ Higher

2024-02-12M:  Nasdaq continues to Lead Major Indexes’ Higher

NOTE:  My service that sends out notice that this newsletter is published, has added an extra level of security that has to be done before sending out the nightly message that the newsletter is out. This step is to ensure the email list is not spamming folks who do not want it. But I have not yet figured out how to meet their requirements to get approved for their new security are difficult to follow. Sooooo. I cannot send out the message that tells you this newsletter has been sent, yet.

Instead I am working hard to get this newsletter out earlier.

If you know how to work with the Aweber service on this issue, Please call me:  Charlotte Hudgin at (214) 995-6702 . Thank you!

As of Monday,the Nasdaq lost 0.8% and is, therefore, now up 26.5%. It is still outperforming the S&P500 and the DJIA.

 Yes! In fact,the Nasdaq  should always get your first attention.  Why????

Even though the charts look similar, the Nasdaq earned a much higher percentage gain than the S&P500 over the same period of time.  

Although the charts look similar…. The numbers are certainly different!  I would certainly prefer to be in the QQQ (the Nasdaq 100).

Compare the Nasdaq’s 26.5% to the S&P500’s22.0% gain .

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 7.0% during that same time fame (which is why I never recommend you invest in the DJIA.)  

But is there any way to consistently earn more?

Most of you know that answer to that question:

>>>>If the uptrending market is moving higher consistently,  I simply put my money in the TRIPLE QQQ until the market starts to generate a smaller return.

NOTE for the last 23 years I’ve been following the QQQs, and then the TQQQ and the SQQQs. Last  weekend nailed down my investing plan.

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MY PLAN:  It’s just 3 simple steps:

·      Be in the TQQQ(triple long QQQ) when the market is rising.

·      Be in the SQQQ(triple short QQQ) when the market is falling hard.

o   The SQQQ rise if you hold it because the SQQQ is an INVERSE ETF. It rises when the market it represents falls.

·      And sometimes wait in CASH if the market is changing direction or is just “flakey.”  I’ll discuss any of those times in this newsletter!

Isn’t it nice to have an investment that is likely to earn a positive return when the market is falling?

I like to keep it simple.  “JUST MAKE MINE A TRIPLE.”

Join me in this aggressive investing strategy. But ONLY IF YOU CAN take 5 - 10 minutes a day to track it! A triple can loose a lot of money if you forget to check in daily.

But is there any way to consistently earn more?

Most of you know that answer to that question:

>>>>If the uptrending market is moving higher consistently,  I simply put my money in the TRIPLE QQQ until the market starts to generate a smaller return.

NOTE for the last 23 years I’ve been following the QQQs, and then the TQQQ and the SQQQs.Last  weekend nailed down my investing plan.

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MY PLAN:  It’s just 3 simple steps:

·      Be in the TQQQ(triple long QQQ) when the market is rising.

·      Be in the SQQQ(triple short QQQ) when the market is falling hard.

o   The SQQQ rise if you hold it because the SQQQ is an INVERSE ETF. It rises when the market it represents falls.

·      And sometimes wait in CASH if the market is changing direction or is just “flakey.”  I’ll discuss any of those times in this newsletter!

Isn’t it nice to have an investment that is likely to earn a positive return when the market is falling?

 I like to keep it simple.  “JUST MAKE MINE A TRIPLE.”

 Join me in this aggressive investing strategy. But ONLY IF YOU CAN take 5 - 10 minute sa day to track it! A triple can loose a lot of money if you forget to check in daily.

>>> And if you ever get spooked, *CASH* is always a safe position. You may not make as much as being in a rising triple ETF but you will sleep better at night if you don’t extend past your comfort level. And a little practice will sure show you what you did right and what you did wrong, If you are willing to examine the big wins and losses.  

Could it be any easier?  I have played the triple Note QQQ and inverse QQQ for years; ….even  before I had made much money in them.  They made sense then and they make more sense now.

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So I continue my investing plan:

·      Hang on to the TQQQ when the market is rising.

·      Move to CASH when the market is unclear.

·      Change to SQQQ (the short Qs) when the market is falling.

I MUST complement the QQQ and SQQQ ETF managers! They deliver on their promise to ride the TQQQ up about 2.5X to 3X times the QQQ. In a squirely market even 2.3% for the TQQQ is better than the single QQQ.

Look at the single QQQ return on the table below. Would you prefer to be “conservative” and earn only the single Nasdaq’s1.7%? I can’t promise the TQQQ and SQQQ will always get those high returns.  But earning more than the single QQQ is OK with me.!

How well did the TQQQ do Tuesday? Look below. A quiet day with a perfect 1, 2, 3relationship on today’s price changes.

>>> And if you ever get spooked, *CASH* is always a safe position. You may not make as much as being in a rising triple ETF but you will sleep better at night if you don’t extend past your comfort level. And a little practice will sure show you what you did right and what you did wrong, If you are willing to examine the big wins and losses.  

Could it be any easier?  I have played the triple Note QQQ and inverse QQQ for years; ….even  before I had made much money in them.  They made sense then and they make more sense now.

So I continue my investing plan:

·      Hang on to the TQQQ when the market is rising.

·      Move to CASH when the market is unclear.

·      Change to SQQQ (the short Qs) when the market is falling.

I MUST complement the QQQ and SQQQ ETF managers! They deliver on their promise to ride the TQQQ up about 2.5X to 3X times the QQQ. In a squirely market even 2.3% for the TQQQ is better than the single QQQ.

Look at the single QQQ return on the table below. Would you prefer to be “conservative” and earn only the single Nasdaq’s1.7%? I can’t promise the TQQQ and SQQQ will always get those high returns.  But earning more than the single QQQ is OK with me.!

How well did the TQQQ do Tuesday? Look below. A quiet day with a perfect 1, 2, 3relationship on today’s price changes. (reminder of Monday's action)

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Remember: The triple ETFs play a big game… and so are you if you follow this newsletter. Not every day will be a rising day. Most importantly, the QQQ, QLD and TQQQ moves have been closely aligned with their 1X, 2X and 3X targets.

>>> I happily put my investment in the TQQQ as long as the market is rising, being very pleased with whatever slight variation of 3x that they earn.

(If you have a better investment vehicle to use for the 3xreturn, please let me know.)

Turning to the major indexes (Yawn): As usual, the Nasdaq moved the most, the DJIA made the smallest move, and the S&P500 was very close to an average of the two.  

If you are investing based on the major indexes near the start of this newsletter, know that you cannot buy the Nasdaq index.  That is why I spend time on the ETFs instead.

>>> MY PLAN FOR TUESDAY:  

REMEMBER: I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO PICK THE TOP OR THE BOTTOM OF A RUN until I see them in the rearview mirror.

But I usually get closer to the tops and bottoms than most traders.

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>>>>>> If I decide to sell the TQQQ because its price drops significantly Tuesday, I will tell you in this newsletter. We can go to CASH or the inverse as an appropriate place to protect my capital.

If the ETF resumes upward progress Tuesday, I stay in the TQQQ.

>>> NOTE:The nice thing about the TQQQ is -- it can make a lot of money for you when it is rising.  

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THE BAD NEWS ABOUT THE TRIPLE QQQs – BOTH the TQQQ and the SQQQ: You can QUICKLY LOOSE THOSE GAINS IN A QUICK MARKET TURNAROUND IF YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION.  Please visit this newsletter every day – even if only to read the first page.

IF YOU ARE GOING TO PLAY IN THE TRIPLE ETF UNIVERSE, YOU HAVE TO WATCH IT EVERY DAY ….. OR BE WILLING TO BE UNPLEASANTLY SURPRISED (DISAPPOINTED) WITH A QUICK SWITCH IN THE MARKET DIRECTION.

>>>> Really…. How long does it take to look at the current price chart? Just a wink if you have it set up on your phone or computer

I AM AMAZED AT HOW FEW DOWN DAYS  the Nasdaq has in the last 20 trading days!

What I like best about the current MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS table below is the number of Accumulation days (6) versus the Distribution days (3) it is currently racking up.

That ratio gives me a good sense of the strength and direction of the current market. If the recent move of 6UP days and 3 DOWN days confuses you, note that I do not count a day’s move unless it was at least 0.2% up or down (which these did.)

Due to some technical problems, I have NOT UPDATED the following section of today’s newsletter for two days.

What should you do when the market starts falling (and it always does…. eventually.)?

Just read this newsletter that night and I will give you a simple solution based on what the market is doing then.

>>>>>REMEMBER:  I do NOT know how to:

·      Get in at the bottom or

·      Get out at the top.

·      But I have consistently gotten closer than most other advisors…. And that timing has returned significant growth in my portfolio and those report from elsewhere.

Are you concerned that the market may have risen as much as it can for the moment? You might be right … but I’m not worried.

>>> The current Uptrend is to still showing moderate strength.  

NOTE:  IF YOU EVER SEE AN EMAIL FROM ME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY (which happens rarely), consider giving it a quick read. It MIGHT include a change of strategy you can implement during the day to reduce your losses as the market falls or to save more of your prior wins.

·      Remember:The market and individual stocks continue in the direction they are going…until they don’t.

>>>> Please read this newsletter nightly to be sure you don’t miss my notes on when and where the big growth (or fall) is happening!  

I hope you have enjoyed an investment in the TQQQ (triple QQQ.)  They have grown almost 4 times the single QQQ this year. ….. But remember…. The TQQQ also can fall at 3 (or more)times the QQQ.  

What to do about the high volatility of the TQQQ?

>>>I suggest you read at least the first two pages of this newsletter each night.  This action will keep you tapped into the current market. And remember:

·      I do NOT know how to get in at the market bottoms and out at the tops. ----- I just get closer than most others. Note on the above table the price/volume action

of the last 20 days. Only 3 days were Distribution days –when the price dropped and the volume rose, indicated some serious selling.

>>>>>FINALLY:REMEMBER:

In the stock market,…

“What goes UP, UP, UP….. eventually es DOWN, DOWN, DOWN! “

Look below at the amazing percentage of stocks that have “A” or “B” ratings – Even after a drop from recent A+B showing 68%.... today’s 55% As+Bs is still pleasantly strong.!!!

 Accumulation/Distribution table:  note: The percent of stocks with A, B, C, Ds and E ratings are on the sheet that was not updated Friday. So I have kept the prior day’s counts. The percents do not change very fast. Using Thursday (below) will still give you a good picture of how the market is doing (slipping a bit to the downside.)

Note: the A, B, C, D, E counts were missing for Friday so I used Thursday’s counts.  The IBD BIG PICTURE never showed the usual attachment with all of those nice charts and counts. So I used the Thursday counts which were probably not much different than the real Friday numbers.

Please consider reviewing this newsletter daily: .The markets can change direction and strength quickly!

Note that the percentage of As and Bs took hit over the last 4 weeks – a drop from 61% four weeks ago to 52% 2 WEEKS AGO TO 58% LAST WEEK on this week!>>>>>  A small drop !

NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding onto a falling stock, (whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company), is a quick way to lose your recent gains.If you play individual stocks and ETF’s, play carefully. Use the real returns(daily, weekly, monthly)

IT IS COMMON FOR STOCKS, ETFs, AND FUNDS TO FALL FASTER THAN THE RISE.

Of course, I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.

REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fast rising market, you should VISIT your portfolio to verify it(or a big part of it) is not dropping.

Stay tuned! And watch daily!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are very healthy.

Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.

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I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THIS NEWSLETTER.  

I USUALLY SPEND  MORE THAN 4HOURS FOR EACH ARMCHAIR INVESTOR NEWSLETTER:

·      RESEARCHING THE IDEAS IN THIS NEWSLETTER,

·      CALCULATING ALL THE DATA I NEED,

·      WRITING THE TEXT FOR THE NEWSLETTER AND….

·      FORMATTING THE NEWSLETTER.  (Today it was more like 5 hours.)

I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINOR CHANGES IN TODAY’S NEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.) 

Thank you for your kind feedback  and ESPECIALLY FOR YOU WHO HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A MONTHY CONTRIBUTION.

Charlotte Hudgin, The ArmchairInvestor

May your stock portfolio grow and grow and grow!  

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CharlotteDH100@mail.com

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