2024-03-11M: The Armchair Investor Newsletter. Monday’s minor 0.4% Nasdaq drop was small contribution to Friday’s 1.2% drop.

2024-03-11M: The Armchair Investor Newsletter.  Monday’s minor 0.4% Nasdaq drop was small contribution to Friday’s 1.2% drop.

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Look at the daily TQQQ chart below. Remember the TQQQ is a triple ETF (Exchange Traded Fund.)

You might not notice Monday’s smidge of a drop to Friday’s bigger drop. But this action, when projected on to the triple QQQ (TQQQ), is a small but annoying sting.

But you have to remember that the TQQQ is up almost 100% over the last 5 months.  I am not crying!  Not even complaining – this volatility is what, eventually pays be off big-time if you can just see when to get in and out! And that is what this newsletter is designed to do.

REMEMBER:  I do not know how to get in at the lows or out at the highs. I just get closer than most!

I still see Friday’s high volume distribution day as a warning. And I am paying attention to it, glad that Monday’s drop was just -0.4%. Again, you might look at the Monay volume on the TQQQ chart below. How far back you have to look to find a higher volume day?  

Answer:  November 1, 2023.

So should Friday’s volume scare you?.....

Well at least I hope you got concerned enough to check on Monday’s price and volume change during the day. Look back on the TQQQ chart above and you will see Monday’s volume ended slightly below average with a small 1.2% drop in the TQQQ price..

It’s actually the drop on volume that gives me a small bit of comfort. The below average volume paired with a recovery in the TQQQ price during the day that took away my concern. No need to hold your breath,

If you step back and look at the above chart, you may not be too concerned.  NOTE: It’s the high volume on Friday that was a concern for me. Since Monday took such a small dip today (and with below average volume), I will check in on the market Tuesday, but do not expect bad news.  (But I will still check in a few times.)

Monday was a sleepy day for the market. Yawn!

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IN MY WORLD –

·       NOTHING BEATS THE TQQQ in an Uptrend, and

·       NOTHING BEATS THE SQQQ in a Downtrend.

NOTE:  For the next week, I have some big commitments in service projects. (I am a Rotarian, the largest volunteer service organization in the world!)  

Thus,the newsletters may be shorter – especially if not much is shifting in the market.  

>>>I focus on the TQQQ because you can make 3 times as much on the TQQQ in arising market.

NOTE:  I am very pleased with the dependable 1-2-3 relationship the 3 ETFs – the single QQQ, the double QLD and the triple TQQQ… and I am especially enjoying making those great returns on the triple QQQs!...

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If you can’t sleep tonight because you know the TQQQ can drop 3 times as fast as the QQQ, I encourage you to take one of these moves:

·      First, look at a weekly chart(which takes out much of the annoying volatility),  

·       Second, realizethat the TQQQ is climbing toward its recent high and is mostly rising (every investment has ups and downs.

·       Third, step back and see how they are adding up…. Are the investments rising or falling overall?

·      If you can’t sleep well at night knowing the TQQQ can fall3 times as fast as the single QQQ, consider holding your investment in the QQQ and “paper trade” the TQQQ.

·      And stay tuned…. Note what happens next so you will see ifthe exit was the best idea….. The good news about the TQQQ is that they havepaid me well in every runup I have used them.

MY PLAN: >>> If the market keeps moving higher consistently,  I will simply put my money in the TRIPLE QQQ until the market starts to generate a smaller return or reverses down..

NOTEfor the last 23 years I’ve been following the QQQs, and then, when they camealong, the TQQQ (triple QQQ) and the SQQQs (the short triple QQQ), my portfoliohas enjoyed an accelerated growth.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY PLAN:  It’s just 3 simple steps:

1.    Be in the TQQQ (triple long QQQ) when the market is rising.

2.    Be in the SQQQ (triple short QQQ) when the market isfalling hard.

o   The SQQQ rise if you hold it because the SQQQ is an INVERSE ETF. It rises when the market it represents falls.

3.    And sometimes wait in CASH if the market is changing direction or is just “flakey.”  I’ll discuss any of those times in this newsletter!

Isn’tit nice to have an investment that is likely to earn a positive return when themarket is falling? (That is what an “inverse” ETF does like the SQQQ.)

>>>And if you ever get spooked, *CASH* is always a safe position.You may not make as much as being in a rising triple ETF but you will sleep better at night if you don’t extend past your comfort level. And a little practice will sure show you what you did right and what you did wrong, If youare willing to examine the big wins and losses.

Could it be any easier?  I have played the triple Note QQQ and inverse QQQ for years; ….even  before I had made much money in them.  They made sense then and they make more sensenow.

So I continue my investing plan:

·       Hang on to the TQQQ when the market is rising.

·       Move to CASH when the market is unclear.

 ·       Change to SQQQ (the short Qs) when the market is falling.

I MUST complement the QQQ and SQQQ ETF managers! They deliver on their promise to ride the TQQQ up about 2.5X to 3X times the QQQ. In a

>>> I happily put my investment in the TQQQ as long as the market is rising, being very pleased with whatever slight variation of 3x that they earn.

>>>>>>PLAN FOR TOMORROW:   Be in the TQQQ. <<<<<<<<<

REMEMBER: I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO PICKTHE TOP OR THE BOTTOM OF A RUN until I see them in the rearviewmirror.

But I usually get closer to the tops and bottoms than most traders.

>>>NOTE: The nice thing about the TQQQ is -- it can make a lot of money for you whenit is rising.  

THE BAD NEWS ABOUT THE TRIPLE QQQs – BOTH the TQQQ and the SQQQ: You can QUICKLY LOOSE THOSE GAINS IN A QUICK MARKET TURN AROUND IF YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION.  Please visit this newsletter every day – even if only to read the first page.

IF YOU ARE GOING TO PLAY IN THE TRIPLE ETF UNIVERSE, YOU HAVE TO WATCH IT EVERY DAY….. OR BE WILLING TO BE UNPLEASANTLY SURPRISED (DISAPPOINTED) WITH A QUICK SWITCH IN THE MARKET DIRECTION.

>>>> Really…. How long does it take to look at the current price chart? Just a wink if you have it set up on your phone orcomputer

I AM AMAZED AT HOW FEW DOWN DAYS  the Nasdaq has in the last 20 trading days!

What I like best about the current MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS table below is the number of Accumulation days (5) still (slightly) out runs the 4 distribution days in the last 20 trading days.

That ratio gives me a good sense of the strength and direction of the current market. If the recent move of 6 UP days and 3 DOWN days confuses you, note that I do not count a day’s move unless it was at least 0.2% up or down (which these did.

What should you do when the market starts falling (and it always does…. eventually.)?

Just read this newsletter that night and I will give you a simple solution based onwhat the market is doing then.

If you can’t stand the market dropping, it is OK to sell your holdings abd wait in CASH.

>>>>>REMEMBER: I do NOT know how to:

·      Get in at the bottom or

·      Get out at the top.

·      But I have consistently gotten closer than most other advisors…. And that timing has returned significant growth in my portfolio and those report from elsewhere.

Are you concerned that the market may have risen as much as it can for the moment? You might be right … but I’m not yet seeing the market slowing down.

>>>The current Uptrend is to still showing moderate strength.  

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NOTE: IF YOU EVER SEE AN EMAIL FROM ME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY (whichhappens rarely), consider giving it a quick read. It MIGHT include a change of strategy you can implement during the day to reduce your losses as the marketfalls or to save more of your prior wins.

·      Remember: The market and individual stocks continue in the direction they are going…until they don’t.

>>>>Please read this newsletter nightly to be sure you don’t miss my notes on whenand where the big growth (or fall) is happening!  

What to do about the high volatility of the TQQQ?

>>>I suggest you read at least the first two pages of this newsletter each night. This action will keep you tapped into the current market. And remember:

·      I do NOT know how to get in at the market bottoms and out at the tops. ----- Ijust get closer than most others. Note on the above table the price/volume action

of the last 20 days. Only 3 days were Distribution days –when the price dropped andthe volume rose, indicated some serious selling.

>>>>>FINALLY:REMEMBER:

In the stock market,…

“What goes UP, UP, UP….. eventually goes DOWN, DOWN, DOWN! “

Look below at the amazing percentage of stocks that have “A” or “B” ratings – Even after adrop from recent A+B s owning 68%.... today’s 55% As+Bs is still pleasantly strong.!!!

Thursday’s  Accumulation/Distribution table:  

Pink boxes above indicate ratings that have fallen over the last week.

Green boxes above indicate ratings that have risen over the last week.

Please consider reviewing this newsletter daily: .The markets can change direction and strength quickly! Note that the percentage of As and Bs took hit over the last 4 weeks – a drop from 61% four weeks ago to 52% 2 WEEKS AGO TO 58% LAST WEEK on this week!>>>>>  A small drop !

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NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding onto a falling stock, (whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company), is a quick way to lose your recent gains. If you play individual stocks and ETF’s,play carefully. Use the real returns (daily, weekly, monthly)

IT IS COMMON FOR STOCKS, ETFs, AND FUNDS TO FALL FASTER THAN THE RISE.

Of course, I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.

REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fast rising market, you should VISIT your portfolio to verify it (or a big part ofit) is not dropping.

>>>> Stay tuned for Friday’s results!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are very healthy.

Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.

I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THIS NEWSLETTER.  

I USUALLY SPEND  MORE THAN 4 HOURS FOR EACH ARMCHAIR INVESTOR NEWSLETTER:

·      RESEARCHING THE IDEAS IN THIS NEWSLETTER,

·      CALCULATING ALL THE DATA I NEED,

·      WRITING THE TEXT FORTHE NEWSLETTER AND….

·      FORMATTING THE NEWSLETTER.  (Today it was more like 5 hours.)

I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINOR CHANGES IN TODAY’S NEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.) 

Thank you for your kind feedback  and ESPECIALLY FOR YOU WHO HAVE DECIDED TOMAKE A MONTHY CONTRIBUTION.

Charlotte Hudgin, The Armchair Investor

May your stock portfolio grow and grow and grow!