2024-03-18M: Armchair Investor Newsletter. TQQQ is 5.6% below its recent All-Time High

2024-03-18M: Armchair Investor Newsletter.  TQQQ is5.6% below its recent All-Time High

On Monday,the TQQQ popped 2.8% making the ETF just 5.6% off its recent all-time high!.

Tonight’s newsletter will shorter than usual but will include critical data.

If you are uncertain about the volatility of the triples (TQQQ, an investment which has been moving at about 3 times the plain QQQ), just take a moment and step back. Look at the big blue arrow on the chart below, showing the TQQQ’s extraordinary 96.8% gain in a less than 5 months. No complaints here!

TQQQ closed on Monday at 59.39, a rise of 2.8%. (Yippee!)  

Note that the TQQQ has been below its all-time high on 3/1 now for 2 weeks.  Another way to look at the chart below isto see the TQQQ dancing sideways around 60 for 4 weeks.  Look back further and you can see another hiton 60.  

[A note about working with WebFLow..... WebFlow was designed to work on an Apple computer. By using my PC, the software is sometimes confused or uncertain about spacing ----- and misses a lot of spaces which I usually look for and add in. I do not have time for much of that tonight. So please bare with the missing spaces. I think must of the concatenated words will be obvious to you.

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The good news is, the TQQQ has not given up the 60 price.Given the 100+% gains over the 4 ½ months the TQQQ has risen from its Octoerlow, I am thrilled that it is holding at 60. Perhaps this is just a “breather?”  

Please note,…. Based on the several weeks of playing around $60,  I am watching for a possible drop.  I have no inside information that a drop iscoming.  But a density of distributiondays (down days on higher volume) might get me to cash out and wait on the sidelines.

KnowingI am still holding that 100% rise in the TQQQ over the last 5 months.  I am not crying!  Not even complaining – this volatility iswhat, eventually, pays off big-time if you can just see when to get in and out!And that is what we will continue to discuss in this newsletter.

REMEMBER:  I do not know how to get in at the lows orout at the highs. I just get closer than most!

If youstep back and look at the above TQQQ chart above, you may not be tooconcerned.  The TQQQ will continue to bevolatile…..that’s what a triple ETF does.

>>>>LET’S LOOK AT DAY’S indexes. Just asmall correction across the board:

What did the triple QQQs (all 3 forms of them shown below) do on Friday?

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NOTE:  I am verypleased with the dependable 1-2-3 relationship the 3 ETFs – the single QQQ, thedouble QLD and the triple TQQQ… and I am especially enjoying making those greatreturns on the triple QQQs!...

Note that the high within the last 20 days was hit on 3/7/2024.Look for the Green data box on the list of the last 20 days!er – just the most important highlights/

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MY CURRENT PLAN:

If themarket keeps moving higher consistently, I will simply keep my money in the TRIPLE QQQ until the market startsto generate a smaller return or reverses down..

NOTEfor the last 23 years I’ve been following the QQQs, and then, when they camealong, the TQQQ (triple QQQ) and the SQQQs (the short triple QQQ), my portfoliohas enjoyed an accelerated growth.

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MYPLAN:  It’s just 3 simple steps:

1.    Be in the TQQQ (triple long QQQ) when the market is rising.

2.    Be in the SQQQ (triple short QQQ) when the market isfalling hard.

o   TheSQQQ rise if you hold it because the SQQQ is an INVERSE ETF. It rises when themarket it represents falls.

3.    And sometimes wait in CASH if the market is changingdirection or is just “flakey.”  I’lldiscuss any of those times in this newsletter!

Isn’tit nice to have an investment that is likely to earn a positive return when themarket is falling? (That is what an “inverse” ETF does like the SQQQ.)

>>>And if you ever get spooked, *CASH* is always a safe position.You may not make as much as being in a rising triple ETF but you will sleepbetter at night if you don’t extend past your comfort level. And a littlepractice will sure show you what you did right and what you did wrong, If youare willing to examine the big wins and losses.

Couldit be any easier?  I have played thetriple Note QQQ and inverse QQQ for years; ….even  before I had made much money in them.  They made sense then and they make more sensenow.

So I continuemy investing plan:

·       Hangon to the TQQQ when the market is rising.

·       Moveto CASH when the market is unclear.

·       Changeto SQQQ (the short Qs) when the market is falling.

I MUSTcomplement the QQQ and SQQQ ETF managers! They deliver on their promise to ride the TQQQ up about 2.5X to 3X timesthe QQQ. In a

>>> I happilyput my investment in the TQQQ as long as the market is rising, being very pleasedwith whatever slight variation of 3x that they earn.

>>>>>>PLAN FOR TOMORROW:   Be in the TQQQ. <<<<<<<<<

REMEMBER: I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO PICKTHE TOP OR THE BOTTOM OF A RUN until I see them in the rearviewmirror.

But Iusually get closer to the tops and bottoms than most traders.

>>>NOTE: The GOOD NEWS about the TQQQ is -- it can make a lot of money for youwhen it is rising.  

TheBAD NEWS about the TRIPLE QQQs – BOTH the TQQQ and the SQQQ: You can QUICKLY LOOSE THOSE GAINS IN A QUICK MARKET TURNAROUND IF YOU ARENOT PAYING ATTENTION.  Please visitthis newsletter every day – even if only to read the first page.

IF YOUARE GOING TO PLAY IN THE TRIPLE ETF UNIVERSE, YOU HAVE TO WATCH IT EVERY DAY….. OR BE WILLING TO BE UNPLEASANTLY SURPRISED (DISAPPOINTED) WITH A QUICKSWITCH IN THE MARKET DIRECTION.

>>>> Really…. How long does it take to look atthe current price chart? Just a wink if you have it set up on your phone orcomputer

I AM AMAZED AT HOW FEW DOWN DAYS  the Nasdaq has in the last 20 trading days!

What Ilike best about the current MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS tablebelow is the number of Accumulation days (5) still (slightly) out runs the4 distribution days in the last 20 trading days.

Thatratio gives me a good sense of the strength and direction of the currentmarket. If the recent move of 6 UP days and 3 DOWN days confuses you, notethat I do not count a day’s move unless it was at least 0.2% up or down (whichthese did.)

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Whatshould you do WHEN THE MARKET STARTS FALLING (and it always does…. eventually.)?

Justread this newsletter that night and I will give you a simple solution based onwhat the market is doing then.

If youcan’t stand the market dropping, it is OK to sell your holdings abd wait inCASH.

>>>>>REMEMBER: I do NOT know how to:

·      Get in at the bottomor

·      Get out at the top.

·      ButI have consistently gotten closer than most other advisors…. And that timinghas returned significant growth in my portfolio and those report from elsewhere.Are you concerned that the market may have risen as much as it can for themoment? You might be right … but I’m not yet seeing the market slowingdown.

>>>The current Uptrend is to still showing moderate strength.  

NOTE: IF YOU EVER SEE AN EMAIL FROM ME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY (whichhappens rarely), consider giving it a quick read. It MIGHT include a change ofstrategy you can implement during the day to reduce your losses as the marketfalls or to save more of your prior wins.

·      Remember:The market and individual stocks continue in the direction they are going…until they don’t.

>>>>Please read this newsletter nightly to be sure you don’t miss my notes on whenand where the big growth (or fall) is happening!  

Whatto do about the high volatility of the TQQQ?

>>>Isuggest you read at least the first two pages of this newsletter each night. This action will keep you tapped into the current market. And remember:

·      Ido NOT know how to get in at the market bottoms and out at the tops. ----- Ijust get closer than most others. Note on the above table the price/volumeaction

of thelast 20 days. Only 3 days were Distribution days –when the price dropped andthe volume rose, indicated some serious selling.

>>>>>FINALLY:REMEMBER:

In thestock market,…

“WHAT  goes UP, UP, UP….. eventually goes DOWN, DOWN,DOWN! “

Look belowat the amazing percentage of stocks that have “A” or “B” ratings – Even after adrop from recent A+B s owning 68%.... today’s 55% As+Bs is still pleasantlystrong.!!!

Monday’sAccumulation/Distribution table:

Sorry about the odd green boxes that show up. On the other part of this process, the greens all look alike. Please seethem that way tonight!

Pink boxes above indicate ratings that have fallen over the last week. Green boxes above indicate ratings that have risen over the last week.

Pleaseconsider reviewing this newsletter daily: .Themarkets can change direction and strength quickly! Note that the percentage ofAs and Bs took hit over the last 4 weeks – a drop from 61% fourweeks ago to 52% 2 WEEKS AGO TO 58% LAST WEEK on this week!>>>>>  A small drop !

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NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding ontoa falling stock, (whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company), is aquick way to lose your recent gains. If you play individual stocks and ETF’s,play carefully. Use the real returns (daily, weekly, monthly)

IT IS COMMON FOR STOCKS, ETFs, AND FUNDS TO FALL FASTERTHAN THE RISE.

Of course, I do not sell a position that has been risingwell after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss overseveral days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days(down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash canhelp you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.

REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fastrising market, you should VISIT your portfolio to verify it (or a big part ofit) is not dropping.

>>>> Stay tuned for Friday’s results!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTERTHAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are veryhealthy.

Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.

I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THISNEWSLETTER.  

I USUALLY SPEND  MORE THAN 4 HOURS FOR EACH ARMCHAIRINVESTOR NEWSLETTER:

·      RESEARCHING THE IDEASIN THIS NEWSLETTER,

·      CALCULATING ALL THEDATA I NEED,

·      WRITING THE TEXT FORTHE NEWSLETTER AND….

·      FORMATTING THENEWSLETTER.  (Today it was more like 5 hours.)

I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINOR CHANGES IN TODAY’SNEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.) 

Thank you for your kind feedback  and ESPECIALLY FOR YOU WHO HAVE DECIDED TOMAKE A MONTHY CONTRIBUTION.

Charlotte Hudgin, The Armchair Investor

May your stock portfolio grow and grow and grow like thisgiraffe family!

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