2024-03-19T: Armchair Investor Newsletter.  TQQQ is 5.6% below its recent All-Time High

52024-03-19T: Armchair Investor Newsletter.  TQQQ is5.6% below its recent All-Time High

On Monday,the TQQQ popped 2.8% making the ETF just 5.6% off its recent all-time high!.

Tonight’s newsletter will shorter than usual but will include critical data.

If you are uncertain about the volatility of the triples (TQQQ, an investment which has been moving at about 3 times the plain QQQ), just take a moment and step back. Look at the big blue arrow on the chart below, showing the TQQQ’s extraordinary 96.8% gain in a less than 5 months. No complaints here!

TQQQ closed on Monday at 59.39, a rise of 2.8%. (Yippee!)  

Note that the TQQQ has been below its all-time high on 3/1 now for 2 weeks.  Another way to look at the chart below isto see the TQQQ dancing sideways around 60 for 4 weeks.  Look back further and you can see another hiton 60.  

[A note about working with WebFLow..... WebFlow was designed to work on an Apple computer. By using my PC, the software is sometimes confused or uncertain about spacing ----- and misses a lot of spaces which I usually look for and add in. I do not have time for much of that tonight. So please bare with the missing spaces. I think must of the concatenated words will be obvious to you.

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The good news is, the TQQQ has not given up the 60 price.Given the 100+% gains over the 4 ½ months the TQQQ has risen from its Octoer low, I am thrilled that it is holding at 60. Perhaps this is just a “breather?”  

Please note,…. Based on the several weeks of the Nasdaq playing around the $60 level,  I am watching for a possible drop.  I have no inside information that a drop is coming.  But a density of distribution days (down days on higher volume) might get me to cash out and wait on the sidelines.

Knowing that I am still holding the recent 100% rise in the TQQQ over the last 5 months, I am not crying!  Not even complaining – this volatility is what, eventually, pays off big-time if you can just see when to get in and out!And that is what we will continue to discuss in this newsletter.

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REMEMBER:  I do not know how to get in at the lows or out at the highs. I just get closer than most!

If you step back and look at the above TQQQ chart above, you may not be too concerned.  The TQQQ will continue to be volatile…..that’s what a triple ETF does.

>>>>LET’S LOOK AT THE DAY’S indexes. Just a small correction across the board:

What did the triple QQQs (all 3 forms of them shown below) do on Tuesday? Right! Especially the TQQQ! They played there 3X moves very nicely!

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NOTE:  I am very pleased with the dependable 1-2-3 relationship the 3 ETFs – the single QQQ, the double QLD and the triple TQQQ… and I am especially enjoying making those great returns on the triple QQQs!...

Note that the high within the last 20 days was hit on 3/7/2024. Look for the Green data box on the list of the last 20 days! er – just the most important highlights/

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 ‍The 20-day HISTORY of the NASDAQ PRICE & VOLUME

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‍MY CURRENT PLAN:

‍If the market keeps moving higher consistently, I will simply keep my money in the TRIPLE QQQ until the market starts to generate a smaller return or reverses down.

NOTE for the last 23 years I’ve been following the QQQs, and then, when they camealong, the TQQQ (triple QQQ) and the SQQQs (the short triple QQQ), my portfolio has enjoyed an accelerated growth.

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MY PLAN:  It’s just 3 simple steps:

1.    Be in the TQQQ (triple long QQQ) when the market is rising.

2.    Be in the SQQQ (triple short QQQ) when the market is falling hard.

.....   The SQQQ rise if you hold it while the SQQQ falls because the SQQQ is an INVERSE ETF. It rises when the market falls.

3.    And sometimes wait in CASH if the market is direction or is just “flakey.”  I’ll discuss in this newsletter any of those times as they happen !

Isn’t it nice to have an investment that is likely to earn a positive return when the market is falling? (That is what an “inverse” ETF does like the SQQQ.)

>>>And if you ever get spooked, *CASH* is always a safe position.You may not make as much as being in a rising triple ETF but you will sleep better at night if you don’t extend past your comfort level. And a little practice will sure show you what you did right and what you did wrong, If you are willing to examine the big wins and losses.

Could it be any easier?  I have played the triple Note QQQ and inverse QQQ for years; ….even  before I had made much money in them.  They made sense then and they make more sense now.

So I continue my investing plan:

·       Hang on to the TQQQ when the market is rising.

·       Move to CASH when the market is unclear.

·       Change to SQQQ (the short Qs) when the market is falling.

I MUST complement the QQQ and SQQQ ETF managers! They deliver on their promise to ride the TQQQ up about 2.5X to 3X times the QQQ. In an uptrend!

>>> I happily put my investment in the TQQQ as long as the market is rising, being very pleased with whatever slight variation of 3x that they earn.

>>>>>>MY PLAN FOR WEDNESDAY:   Be IN the TQQQ. <<<<<<<<<

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REMEMBER: I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO PICK THE TOP OR THE BOTTOM OF A RUN until I see them in the rearview mirror.

But I usually get closer to the tops and bottoms than most traders.

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>>>NOTE: The GOOD NEWS about the TQQQ is -- it can make a lot of money for you when it is rising.  

The BAD NEWS about the TRIPLE QQQs – BOTH the TQQQ and the SQQQ: You can QUICKLY LOOSE THOSE GAINS IN A QUICK MARKET TURNAROUND IF YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION.  Please visit this newsletter every day – even if only to read the first page.

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IF YOU ARE GOING TO PLAY IN THE TRIPLE ETF UNIVERSE, YOU HAVE TO WATCH IT EVERY DAY….. OR BE WILLING TO BE UNPLEASANTLY SURPRISED (DISAPPOINTED) WITH A QUICK SWITCH IN THE MARKET DIRECTION WHEN YOU WEREN'T LOOKING!

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>>>> Really…. How long does it take to look at the current price chart? Just a wink if you have it set up on your phone or computer.

I AM AMAZED AT HOW FEW DOWN DAYS  the Nasdaq had in the last 20 trading days!

What I like best about the current MARKET FACTORS, COUNTS & RATINGS table below is the number of Accumulation days (5) still (slightly) out runs the 4 distribution days in the last 20 trading days.

That ratio gives me a good sense of the strength and direction of the current market. If the recent move of 6 UP days and 3 DOWN days confuses you, note that I do not count a day’s move unless it was at least 0.2% up or down (which these did.)

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Whay should you do WHEN THE MARKET STARTS FALLING (and it always does…. eventually.)?

Just read this newsletter that night and I will give you a simple solution based on what the market is doing then.

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If you can’t stand the market dropping, it is OK to sell your holdings and wait inCASH.

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>>>>>REMEMBER: I do NOT know how to:

·      Get in at the bottom or

·      Get out at the top.

·      But I have consistently gotten closer than most other advisors…. And that timing has returned significant growth in my portfolio and others report the same gains from their portfolios. Are you concerned that the market may have risen as much as it can for the moment? You might be right … but I’m not yet seeing the market slowing down.

>>>The current Uptrend is to still showing moderate strength.  

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#### NOTE: IF YOU EVER SEE AN EMAIL FROM ME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY (which happens rarely), consider giving it a quick read. It MIGHT include a change of strategy you can implement during the day to reduce your losses as the market falls or to save more of your prior wins.

·      Remember: The market and individual stocks continue in the direction they are going…until they don’t.

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>>>>Please read this newsletter nightly to be sure you don’t miss my notes on when and where the big growth (or fall) is happening!  

What to do about the high volatility of the TQQQ?

>>>Is uggest you read at least the first two pages of this newsletter each night. This action will keep you tapped into the current market.

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And remember:

·      I do NOT know how to get in at the market bottoms and out at the tops. ----- I just get closer than most others. Note on the above table the price/volume action

of the last 20 days. Only 3 days were Distribution days –when the price dropped and the volume rose, indicated some serious selling.

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>>>>>FINALLY: REMEMBER:

In the stock market,…

“WHAT  goes UP, UP, UP….. eventually comes DOWN, DOWN,DOWN! “

Look below at the amazing percentage of stocks that have “A” or “B” ratings – Even after adrop from recent A+B s owning 68%.... today’s 55% As+Bs is still pleasantly strong.!!!

Tuesday’s Accumulation/Distribution table:

Sorry about the odd green boxes that show up. On the other part of this process, many greens look alike. Please see them that way tonight! (So please ignor the slightly off.)

Pink boxes above above indicate ratings that have fallen over the last two weeks. Green boxes above indicate ratings that have risen over the last week.

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Please consider reviewing this newsletter daily: .The markets can change direction and strength quickly!

Note that the percentage of As and Bs took hit over the last 2 weeks – a drop from 60% two weeks ago to 55% LAST WEEK on this week!>>>>>  A small drop !

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NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding onto a falling stock, (whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company), is a quick way to lose your recent gains. If you play individual stocks and ETF’s, play carefully. Use the real returns (daily, weekly, monthly)

IT IS COMMON FOR STOCKS, ETFs, AND FUNDS TO FALL FASTER THAN THE RISE - traders are more concerned about loosing money than they are thrilled to earn those gains.

Of course, I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.

REMEMBER:_____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fast rising market, you should VISIT your portfolio to verify it (or a big part ofit) is not dropping.

>>>> Stay tuned for Friday’s results!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

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>>>>>--- MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are very healthy.

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Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.

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I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THIS NEWSLETTER.

AGAIN.... I WILL TALK TO THE AWEBER FOLKS TO WORK OUT HOW TO SEND YOU ALL A MESSAGE WHEN THE NEWSLETTER IS POSTED. (The good news about this period is that I have become must faster on getting the news letter out!

I USUALLY SPEND  MORE THAN 4 HOURS FOR EACH ARMCHAIRINVESTOR NEWSLETTER:

·      RESEARCHING THE IDEAS IN THIS NEWSLETTER,

·      CALCULATING ALL THE DATA I NEED,

·      WRITING THE TEXT FOR THE NEWSLETTER AND….

·      FORMATTING THE NEWSLETTER.  (Today it was more like 5 hours.)

I WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THE MINOR CHANGES IN TODAY’S NEWSLETTER (as described in the notes.) 

Thank you for your kind feedback  and ESPECIALLY FOR YOU WHO HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE A MONTHY or ANNUAL CONTRIBUTION.

Charlotte Hudgin, The Armchair Investor

May your stock portfolio grow and grow and grow like this giraffe family!