Armchair Investor Newsletter 2023-12-05(T) UPTREND Day 24.

Armchair Investor Newsletter  2023-12-05(T) UPTREND Day 24.

TUESDAY: Market quiet today. TQQQ is UP 148.4% this year!

Tuesday was a quiet day….. But add it to the previous 10 days of which 6 days were down or very weak rises and I am concerned that the market may have hit a high last week that it cannot break above, even with the higher volume.

TO REPEAT MONDAY’S NOTE:  The market could still be shrinking from the amazing 19 day rise of which 6 of the last 8 days were down days! And this recent high dropped 5 of the last 7 days. I know no Uptrending period rises everyday.  But I feel like I’ve received a paddling for being bad – and I can’t figure out what I did wrong. I guess “they” are right….

Sometimes the market rises and sometimes it falls.

I WAIT FOR A STRONGER SIGNAL.

Note: The poor DOW just can’t seem to get ahead…. as usual.

I hope you have followed the TRIPLE QQQ (TQQQ) and are enjoying its gains

If you are curious about how COVID created the recent market, review my comments on Monday’s Armchair Investor newsletter.

AN ENCOURAGING THOUGHT:

The last5 weeks were all rising weeks and the QQQ is quite a winner over that period..Will this market continue higher, to break through to a new high? Looking back,I see a high of 403.43 on November 22, 2021. Good news: the QQQ is just 0.3% below that high.

Looking back at this market since it went Covid crazy in 2020, I am sooo glad I look for the charts’ messages. I hope you will, too.

So where are we today? I hope you have followed this newsletter and made the triple digit returns we have shared with you.  

NOTE:  I will continue to highlight the TQQQ in Uptrends, and the inverse SQQQ in falling markets. Why not let the market do the heavy lifting while we just enjoy the ride!

If you are curious about how COVID created the recent market, review my comments on Monday’s Armchair Investor newsletter.

AN ENCOURAGING THOUGHT:

The last5 weeks were all rising weeks and the QQQ is quite a winner over that period..Will this market continue higher, to break through to a new high? Looking back,I see a high of 403.43 on November 22, 2021. Good news: the QQQ is just 0.3% below that high.

Looking back at this market since it went Covid crazy in 2020, I am sooo glad I look for the charts’ messages. I hope you will, too.

So where are we today? I hope you have followed this newsletter and made the triple digit returns we have shared with you.  

ON TO TODAY’S MARKET:

The market is getting healthier-  as I see in the Accumulation/Distribution table later in this newsletter. The sum of the stocks with “A” and ”B” ratings has risen from 28% of the stocks 4 weeks ago, to 60%over the last 4 weeks. Wow! (It was 58% last week.)

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>>>> INVESTING QUESTION FROM MONDAY:

Would you rather have:

(A)  A bumpy exciting investing ride with daring dips and unexpected turns? Or

(B)  A more boring investing strategy that consistently MAKES YOU MORE GAINS?

You’ve seen what I can do for you with option (A) above.

I hope you will stay with us! And enjoy the increased cash flow.

REPEAT FROM MONDAY’S NEWSLETTER:

ADVICE FOR FIRST TIME INVESTORS:

If you are new to the stock market, I strongly suggest you “paper trade” – put your ideas down on paper – pick the stock you want to invest in, when to get in and when to get out. Once you develop a winning track record, start with a small investment until you develop the confidence from a winning track record.

When you see the ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION table below, look at how the market is doing. The count of “A” plus “B” rated stocks is shooting higher!

You can find these ratings in Investors.com.

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Wow! Look at the consistency of the ratings growth –

·       Columns A and B simply grew stronger ALMOST every week while…

·       Columns C, D, and E got softer ALMOST  every week.

>>>>> FOR NEW VISITORS:

As you follow the ARMCHAIR INVESTOR NEWSLETTER, you will see we have taken a simplified approach to investing.  It is fast and frequently pays a high return.

When the market changes its direction,I will explain:

·       WHY I get IN or OUT of the TQQQ

·       WHY I use the SQQQ (inverse triple QQQ) to earn positive returns while the market is falling.

·       And WHY I sometimes go to CASH.

I will focus more on the KISS advice from Investors.com founder William O’Neil and advice from Fred Richards, a good Dallas friend of mine and a long-term friend of William O’Neil – from the time they were both in SMU (Southern Methodist University here in Dallas), until O’Neil’s recent passing.

The growing health of this market can be seen in the increase in the percent of stocks with A or B ratings in the table below rising from just 21% 4 weeks ago to 57% on Tuesday. I am much more excited about buying individual stocks today than I was a month ago..

Here is the history of the Nasdaq index (fastest moving and the one I put my money into.) Note: When the Nasdaq is rising, I color the Nasdaq’s price GREEN that day.  When it falls, I leave it white.  

As you scan down the chart it is easy to see this is a nicely rising period.

On the 20-day history of the Nasdaq’s daily prices below,  where are today?  Yes, the Nasdaq is at a 7-quarter high, …. Just off 2022’s last quarter’s high.

Notice the ratings on the Accumulation/Distribution counts are even (both 4.) The same with the Up and Down days.  It is unusual– but not a bad thing. The history of the Nasdaq says the market rose quite a bit in the last month, but it seems to have slowed down over the last 10 days.

Please be sure to check in DAILY in this market. You don’t want to be caught with a market that turns back down without your getting out!

NOTE THIS WARNING.  Holding onto a falling stock, whether an ETF or the stock of a favorite company, is a quick way to loose your recent gains. If you play individual stocks and ETF’s, play carefully. Use the real returns (daily, weekly, monthly)

Remember….. down is down.  Of course I do not sell a position that has been rising well after one or two small down days. But if you had a significant loss over several days, especially if there is an increase in market distribution days (down days on higher volume), then stepping out and waiting in cash can help you save your portfolio for future rallies and let you sleep at night.

FOR WEDNESDAY, I SUGGEST YOU WATCH THE OPENING OF THE MARKET AND SEE HOW THE QQQ SHOWS UP.  IF THE MARKET OPENS with a significant DROP,YOU MIGHT CONSIDER WAITING IN CASH.

REMEMBER: _____EVEN IF CASH IS A VALID POSITION,…in a fast rising market, you should consider holding a position that allows you to position your portfolio to rise with the market (or a multiple of it.) Stay tuned! And watch daily!

Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!

Stay tuned!    Those birds just aren’t going anywhere!

One additional “Word to the Wise”…

>>>>>---MOST MARKETS FALL FASTER THAN THEY RISE. Beware of buying any new positions unless they are very healthy.

Wishing you big returns in your portfolio!.

I APPRECIATE YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS FOR SUPPORTING THIS NEWSLETTER.  I USUALLY SPEND AT LEAST MORE THAN 4 HOURS RESEARCHING THE IDEAS IN THIS NEWSLETTER, CALCULATING ALL THE DATA I NEED, WRITING THE TEXT FOR THE NEWSLETTER AND…. FORMATING THE NEWSLETTER.

Thank you for your kind feedback and ideas. Please keep sending them.

Charlotte Hudgin

The Armchair Investor

CharlotteDH100@mail.com